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2 UNIT 1 Exploring One-Variable Data

Introduction

We live in a world of data. Every day, the media report poll results, outcomes of
medical studies, and analyses of data on everything from gasoline prices to elec-
tions to weather to the latest technology. These data are trying to tell us a story. To
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understand what the data are saying, we use statistics.

DEFINITION Statistics
Statistics is the science and art of collecting, analyzing, and drawing conclusions
from data.

A solid understanding of statistics will help you make informed decisions based
on data in your daily life. The following activity illustrates one of the many uses
of statistics in the real world.

ACTIVITY Smelling Parkinson’s

Joy Milne, a retired nurse from Scotland, noticed a “subtle musky odor” on her
husband Les that she had never encountered before. At first, Joy thought the
smell might be from Les’s sweat after long hours of work. But when Les was
diagnosed with Parkinson’s disease 6 years later, Joy suspected the odor might
be a result of the disease.
Scientists were intrigued by Joy’s claim and designed an experiment to test
her ability to “smell Parkinson’s.” Joy was presented with 12 different shirts,
each worn by a different person, some of whom had Parkinson’s disease and
some of whom did not. The shirts were given to Joy in a random order, and she
had to decide whether or not each shirt was worn by a patient with Parkinson’s
disease. Joy identified 11 of the 12 shirts correctly.
Although the researchers wanted to believe that Joy could detect Parkin-
son’s disease by smell, it is possible that she was just a lucky guesser. You and
your classmates will perform a simulation with cards or technology to deter-
mine which explanation is more believable.
1. Your teacher will hand each pair of students a set of 12 cards (shirts). On the
back of some cards is “Parkinson’s” and on the back of others is “No Parkin-
son’s.” Shuffle the cards thoroughly.
2. Decide who will guess first and have your partner act as the researcher. For
each card, guess “Parkinson’s” or “No Parkinson’s.” The researcher will not
reveal whether each guess is right or wrong, but will record the number of
© Chris Watt/Telegraph Media Group Limited 2017 4. Repeat Steps 1 and 2 until you have a total of at least 50 trials of the simula-
correct guesses. Now switch roles and repeat the process.
3. Your teacher will draw and label a number line for a class dotplot. Plot the
number of correct guesses you made in Step 2 on the graph.

tion for your class.
5. How often were 11 or more shirts correctly identified by chance alone?
Based on this result, which seems more believable: Joy is just a lucky
guesser, or Joy really can smell Parkinson’s disease? Explain your reasoning.

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